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NCAAFOct 9, 2026 7:00 PM EDT1 days out

Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals

How to read this page. Every figure is an Ayght Sports probability estimate and its recorded movement since we first published it. Both sides are shown the same way. A probability describes how often an outcome occurs across many similar matchups — it is not a prediction of this result, and neither side is recommended over the other.
Away

Florida State Seminoles

35.6%win probability+181 equivalentHolding steady

Opened at 39.8%, has ranged 35.6 to 39.8%, and sits at 35.6% now — +0.0 against its 10-day average.

Opened
39.8%
Range
35.6 to 39.8%
Band
4.3 points
Readings
72
Florida State Seminoles win probabilityProbability10-day average
34%36%38%40%42%35.6%Sep 10Oct 872 readings
Home

Louisville Cardinals

64.4%win probability-181 equivalentHolding steady

Opened at 60.2%, has ranged 60.2 to 64.4%, and sits at 64.4% now — +0.0 against its 10-day average.

Opened
60.2%
Range
60.2 to 64.4%
Band
4.3 points
Readings
72
Louisville Cardinals win probabilityProbability10-day average
58%60%62%64%66%64.4%Sep 10Oct 872 readings

History includes 16 readings carried over from the Ayght platform, where these numbers were first published.