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NCAAFOct 22, 2026 7:30 PM EDT14 days out

East Carolina Pirates at Memphis Tigers

How to read this page. Every figure is an Ayght Sports probability estimate and its recorded movement since we first published it. Both sides are shown the same way. A probability describes how often an outcome occurs across many similar matchups — it is not a prediction of this result, and neither side is recommended over the other.
Away

East Carolina Pirates

32.6%win probability+207 equivalentProbability falling-1.7

Opened at 39.4%, has ranged 32.6 to 39.4%, and sits at 32.6% now — -1.7 against its 10-day average.

Opened
39.4%
Range
32.6 to 39.4%
Band
6.8 points
Readings
12
East Carolina Pirates win probabilityProbability10-day average
32%34%36%38%40%32.6%Oct 8Oct 812 readings
Home

Memphis Tigers

67.4%win probability-207 equivalentProbability rising+1.7

Opened at 60.6%, has ranged 60.6 to 67.4%, and sits at 67.4% now — +1.7 against its 10-day average.

Opened
60.6%
Range
60.6 to 67.4%
Band
6.8 points
Readings
12
Memphis Tigers win probabilityProbability10-day average
60%62%64%66%68%67.4%Oct 8Oct 812 readings

History includes 10 readings carried over from the Ayght platform, where these numbers were first published.