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NCAAFOct 10, 2026 7:00 PM EDT2 days out

North Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels

How to read this page. Every figure is an Ayght Sports probability estimate and its recorded movement since we first published it. Both sides are shown the same way. A probability describes how often an outcome occurs across many similar matchups — it is not a prediction of this result, and neither side is recommended over the other.
Away

North Dakota State Bison

49.6%win probability+102 equivalentProbability falling-6.3

Opened at 56.1%, has ranged 49.5 to 56.2%, and sits at 49.6% now — -6.3 against its 10-day average.

Opened
56.1%
Range
49.5 to 56.2%
Band
6.7 points
Readings
48
North Dakota State Bison win probabilityProbability10-day average
48%51%53%55%57%49.6%Sep 21Oct 848 readings
Home

UNLV Rebels

50.4%win probability-102 equivalentProbability rising+6.3

Opened at 43.9%, has ranged 43.8 to 50.5%, and sits at 50.4% now — +6.3 against its 10-day average.

Opened
43.9%
Range
43.8 to 50.5%
Band
6.7 points
Readings
48
UNLV Rebels win probabilityProbability10-day average
43%45%47%49%52%50.4%Sep 21Oct 848 readings

History includes 14 readings carried over from the Ayght platform, where these numbers were first published.