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NCAAFNov 4, 2026 12:00 AM EST25 days out

Toledo Rockets at Sacramento State Hornets

How to read this page. Every figure is an Ayght Sports probability estimate and its recorded movement since we first published it. Both sides are shown the same way. A probability describes how often an outcome occurs across many similar matchups — it is not a prediction of this result, and neither side is recommended over the other.
Away

Toledo Rockets

84.2%win probability-533 equivalentProbability rising+0.3

Opened at 80.7%, has ranged 80.7 to 84.2%, and sits at 84.2% now — +0.3 against its 10-day average.

Opened
80.7%
Range
80.7 to 84.2%
Band
3.6 points
Readings
34
Toledo Rockets win probabilityProbability10-day average
79%80%82%84%86%84.2%Oct 8Oct 934 readings
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Sacramento State Hornets

15.8%win probability+533 equivalentProbability falling-0.3

Opened at 19.3%, has ranged 15.8 to 19.3%, and sits at 15.8% now — -0.3 against its 10-day average.

Opened
19.3%
Range
15.8 to 19.3%
Band
3.6 points
Readings
34
Sacramento State Hornets win probabilityProbability10-day average
14%16%18%20%21%15.8%Oct 8Oct 934 readings

History includes 30 readings carried over from the Ayght platform, where these numbers were first published.