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NCAAFNov 7, 2026 3:00 PM EST29 days out

UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves

How to read this page. Every figure is an Ayght Sports probability estimate and its recorded movement since we first published it. Both sides are shown the same way. A probability describes how often an outcome occurs across many similar matchups — it is not a prediction of this result, and neither side is recommended over the other.
Away

UL Monroe Warhawks

21.7%win probability+361 equivalentProbability falling-0.9

Opened at 26.3%, has ranged 21.7 to 26.3%, and sits at 21.7% now — -0.9 against its 10-day average.

Opened
26.3%
Range
21.7 to 26.3%
Band
4.7 points
Readings
15
UL Monroe Warhawks win probabilityProbability10-day average
20%22%24%26%28%21.7%Oct 8Oct 815 readings
Home

Arkansas State Red Wolves

78.3%win probability-361 equivalentProbability rising+0.9

Opened at 73.7%, has ranged 73.7 to 78.4%, and sits at 78.3% now — +0.9 against its 10-day average.

Opened
73.7%
Range
73.7 to 78.4%
Band
4.7 points
Readings
15
Arkansas State Red Wolves win probabilityProbability10-day average
72%74%76%78%80%78.3%Oct 8Oct 815 readings

History includes 13 readings carried over from the Ayght platform, where these numbers were first published.