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NHLOct 10, 2026 7:30 PM EDT1 days out

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

How to read this page. Every figure is an Ayght Sports probability estimate and its recorded movement since we first published it. Both sides are shown the same way. A probability describes how often an outcome occurs across many similar matchups — it is not a prediction of this result, and neither side is recommended over the other.
Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

50.8%win probability-103 equivalentProbability falling-1.7

Opened at 52.8%, has ranged 50.7 to 52.8%, and sits at 50.8% now — -1.7 against its 10-day average.

Opened
52.8%
Range
50.7 to 52.8%
Band
2.1 points
Readings
74
Tampa Bay Lightning win probabilityProbability10-day average
48%50%52%54%56%50.8%Sep 21Oct 974 readings
Home

New York Islanders

49.2%win probability+103 equivalentProbability rising+1.7

Opened at 47.2%, has ranged 47.2 to 49.3%, and sits at 49.2% now — +1.7 against its 10-day average.

Opened
47.2%
Range
47.2 to 49.3%
Band
2.1 points
Readings
74
New York Islanders win probabilityProbability10-day average
44%46%48%50%52%49.2%Sep 21Oct 974 readings

History includes 37 readings carried over from the Ayght platform, where these numbers were first published.