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MLSOct 10, 2026 2:30 PM EDT1 days out

New York City FC at Chicago Fire FC

How to read this page. Every figure is an Ayght Sports probability estimate and its recorded movement since we first published it. Both sides are shown the same way. A probability describes how often an outcome occurs across many similar matchups — it is not a prediction of this result, and neither side is recommended over the other.
Away

New York City FC

28.2%win probability+255 equivalentProbability falling-0.4

Opened at 28.6%, has ranged 28.2 to 28.6%, and sits at 28.2% now — -0.4 against its 10-day average.

Opened
28.6%
Range
28.2 to 28.6%
Band
0.4 points
Readings
72
New York City FC win probabilityProbability10-day average
25%26%28%30%32%28.2%Sep 21Oct 972 readings
Draw

Draw

24.6%win probability+307 equivalentProbability rising+0.2

Opened at 24.4%, has ranged 24.4 to 24.6%, and sits at 24.6% now — +0.2 against its 10-day average.

Opened
24.4%
Range
24.4 to 24.6%
Band
0.3 points
Readings
72
Draw win probabilityProbability10-day average
21%23%24%26%28%24.6%Sep 21Oct 972 readings
Home

Chicago Fire FC

47.1%win probability+112 equivalentProbability rising+0.1

Opened at 47.0%, has ranged 47.0 to 47.2%, and sits at 47.1% now — +0.1 against its 10-day average.

Opened
47.0%
Range
47.0 to 47.2%
Band
0.1 points
Readings
72
Chicago Fire FC win probabilityProbability10-day average
43%45%47%49%51%47.1%Sep 21Oct 972 readings

History includes 37 readings carried over from the Ayght platform, where these numbers were first published.