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MLSOct 10, 2026 8:30 PM EDT1 days out

Portland Timbers at Sporting Kansas City

How to read this page. Every figure is an Ayght Sports probability estimate and its recorded movement since we first published it. Both sides are shown the same way. A probability describes how often an outcome occurs across many similar matchups — it is not a prediction of this result, and neither side is recommended over the other.
Away

Portland Timbers

45.8%win probability+118 equivalentProbability falling-3.0

Opened at 49.0%, has ranged 45.8 to 49.0%, and sits at 45.8% now — -3.0 against its 10-day average.

Opened
49.0%
Range
45.8 to 49.0%
Band
3.2 points
Readings
75
Portland Timbers win probabilityProbability10-day average
43%45%47%49%51%45.8%Sep 21Oct 975 readings
Draw

Draw

22.2%win probability+350 equivalentProbability rising+0.3

Opened at 21.9%, has ranged 21.9 to 22.2%, and sits at 22.2% now — +0.3 against its 10-day average.

Opened
21.9%
Range
21.9 to 22.2%
Band
0.3 points
Readings
75
Draw win probabilityProbability10-day average
18%20%22%24%26%22.2%Sep 21Oct 975 readings
Home

Sporting Kansas City

32.0%win probability+213 equivalentProbability rising+2.7

Opened at 29.1%, has ranged 29.1 to 32.0%, and sits at 32.0% now — +2.7 against its 10-day average.

Opened
29.1%
Range
29.1 to 32.0%
Band
2.9 points
Readings
75
Sporting Kansas City win probabilityProbability10-day average
27%29%31%33%34%32.0%Sep 21Oct 975 readings

History includes 40 readings carried over from the Ayght platform, where these numbers were first published.