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MLSOct 17, 2026 2:30 PM EDT8 days out

Charlotte FC at Philadelphia Union

How to read this page. Every figure is an Ayght Sports probability estimate and its recorded movement since we first published it. Both sides are shown the same way. A probability describes how often an outcome occurs across many similar matchups — it is not a prediction of this result, and neither side is recommended over the other.
Away

Charlotte FC

30.6%win probability+227 equivalentProbability falling-0.9

Opened at 31.6%, has ranged 30.6 to 31.6%, and sits at 30.6% now — -0.9 against its 10-day average.

Opened
31.6%
Range
30.6 to 31.6%
Band
1.0 points
Readings
76
Charlotte FC win probabilityProbability10-day average
27%29%31%33%35%30.6%Sep 21Oct 976 readings
Draw

Draw

23.1%win probability+333 equivalentProbability falling-0.4

Opened at 23.5%, has ranged 23.1 to 23.5%, and sits at 23.1% now — -0.4 against its 10-day average.

Opened
23.5%
Range
23.1 to 23.5%
Band
0.5 points
Readings
76
Draw win probabilityProbability10-day average
19%21%23%25%27%23.1%Sep 21Oct 976 readings
Home

Philadelphia Union

46.4%win probability+116 equivalentProbability rising+1.4

Opened at 44.8%, has ranged 44.8 to 46.4%, and sits at 46.4% now — +1.4 against its 10-day average.

Opened
44.8%
Range
44.8 to 46.4%
Band
1.6 points
Readings
76
Philadelphia Union win probabilityProbability10-day average
42%44%46%48%50%46.4%Sep 21Oct 976 readings

History includes 40 readings carried over from the Ayght platform, where these numbers were first published.