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MLSOct 17, 2026 7:30 PM EDT8 days out

Toronto FC at Red Bull New York

How to read this page. Every figure is an Ayght Sports probability estimate and its recorded movement since we first published it. Both sides are shown the same way. A probability describes how often an outcome occurs across many similar matchups — it is not a prediction of this result, and neither side is recommended over the other.
Away

Toronto FC

33.0%win probability+203 equivalentProbability falling-1.1

Opened at 34.1%, has ranged 33.0 to 34.1%, and sits at 33.0% now — -1.1 against its 10-day average.

Opened
34.1%
Range
33.0 to 34.1%
Band
1.1 points
Readings
75
Toronto FC win probabilityProbability10-day average
30%32%34%36%37%33.0%Sep 21Oct 975 readings
Draw

Draw

24.3%win probability+312 equivalentProbability rising+0.4

Opened at 23.9%, has ranged 23.9 to 24.3%, and sits at 24.3% now — +0.4 against its 10-day average.

Opened
23.9%
Range
23.9 to 24.3%
Band
0.4 points
Readings
75
Draw win probabilityProbability10-day average
20%22%24%26%28%24.3%Sep 21Oct 975 readings
Home

Red Bull New York

42.8%win probability+134 equivalentProbability rising+0.8

Opened at 42.0%, has ranged 42.0 to 42.8%, and sits at 42.8% now — +0.8 against its 10-day average.

Opened
42.0%
Range
42.0 to 42.8%
Band
0.8 points
Readings
75
Red Bull New York win probabilityProbability10-day average
38%40%42%44%46%42.8%Sep 21Oct 975 readings

History includes 40 readings carried over from the Ayght platform, where these numbers were first published.