Ayght Sports

Ayght Sports

A probability for every scheduled event, and a record of how it moved.

We publish a win probability for each side of every event we cover, and we keep every reading. What you get is not a number in isolation but its history — where it started, where it has been, and which way it is going.

Movement

The number matters. Where it came from matters more.

Anyone can tell you a team is at 54 percent today. Far fewer can tell you it opened at 61, drifted through the low fifties for a fortnight, and has been climbing since the weekend. That trajectory is the part that carries information, and it is the part almost nobody keeps.

Every event page here plots its full recorded history alongside a ten-day average, so the underlying direction is visible through the day-to-day noise. Team and participant pages do the same across a whole season, and across every futures market that team is entered in.

How a probability is built

Built from the record, not from opinion

Every number begins with what has actually happened. Scoring rates, and how they hold up against different quality of opposition. Point differential across a season rather than a win-loss record that hides how games were won. Home and away splits. Recent form, weighted so the last month counts for more than the first. Rest, travel and schedule density. Who is available to play.

Those inputs feed Poisson-family scoring models and point-differential regression, which produce a distribution of outcomes rather than a single answer. The probability you see is the share of that distribution falling each way. Estimates are generated independently and updated as the inputs change.

Read the methodology

Coverage

Priced from the day the schedule appears

An event can carry a number as soon as it lands on a calendar. Starting early is not the point in itself — it is what gives a number the time to move, and a season of movement to read.

NCAAF263events priced13.4days ahead on average25days to the furthest
NCAAB258events priced16.6days ahead on average30days to the furthest
NBA218events priced14.7days ahead on average30days to the furthest
NHL217events priced15.7days ahead on average31days to the furthest
NFL59events priced14.8days ahead on average29days to the furthest

Updated 46 seconds ago

Furthest out

Events already carrying a number

NCAAB30 days out
Harvard Crimson7.4%
Duke Blue Devils92.6%
no bookmaker odds yetFull analysis
NCAAB30 days out
UConn Huskies44.5%
Illinois Fighting Illini55.5%
no bookmaker odds yetFull analysis
NHL30 days out
San Jose Sharks40.6%
New York Islanders59.4%
no bookmaker odds yetFull analysis
NHL30 days out
Chicago Blackhawks35.5%
St. Louis Blues64.5%
no bookmaker odds yetFull analysis

Reading the numbers

What a probability means here

When Ayght Sports puts a team at 62 percent, it means that across many similar matchups the team wins about 62 times in 100 — and loses the other 38. A high number is not a forecast that something will happen, and a low one is not a forecast that it will not.

Both sides of every event are shown the same way, with the same fields and the same emphasis. We do not publish selections, rate one side above another, or tell you what to do with any of it. The number is the product; the judgement is yours.

Writing

Latest

  • Why we keep every number we publish

    Most places that publish a number about a sporting event publish one number. Chicago at 54 percent. Texas at 19.8 to win the championship. Tomorrow the number is…